Opinion | The October Surprise and Why This US Election Will Shock The World — By Ronnie Mayanja

Posted October 30, 2016 by Ugandan Diaspora News Team in Editorial ~ 5,776 views


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By Ronnie Mayanja — They say 24 hours is a very short time for a news cycle in America. The debates came and went and we are about one week away from what will go down in US history as perhaps the dirtiest and most stressful presidential campaign, one that has also produced the most unpopular nominees of a major political party.

After some remarks caught on a hot mic from years ago went viral after Trump was heard making very derogatory comments about women and how his stardom has allowed him to grope any woman within his reach, Trump’s poor second debate showing had some pundits hoping to see Trump buried, but instead he lived to see another day. During the second debate moderators and Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz pressed Trump for a confession calling his actions on women sexual assault. On his part Trump went after Bill Clinton, who is NOT running for president. However the failure of Hillary to land a knockout punch might haunt her if current developments are anything to go by.

The latest announcement by the FBI to reopen the investigations into Hillary Clinton’s email activity might be another red flag that might also cost some votes less than 10 days to the general election. The current scandals stem from Anthony Weiner, the then New York congressman who sent illicit sexual images to minors. As a former husband to Huma Abedin who happens to be Secretary Clinton’s most trusted aid, Abedin was forced to surrender her communication devices thereby exposing her boss to incriminating emails according to some pundits. The fact that Huma is also of Pakistani descent might not help her situation hence the exacerbating witch-hunt!

The effect of the email dumps from Julian Asange of Wikileaks is quickly hurting Hillary’s chances in some battleground States as more fodder of selling access through the Clinton foundation is made public. Julian Asange says Wikileaks has so far released 35,000 of the 50,000 emails with less than 10 days to go to the general election. For undecided voters the latest developments have left more doubt and eroded TRUST. As someone who voted for Bernie Sanders during the primary I have found it increasingly difficult to embrace Hillary with all the scandals following the campaign – she was weak against Sanders and some feared she could lose the general election — Sanders polled better against the republican challenger during the primaries. Trump was quick to point out how the DNC primary process was biased and rigged in favor of Hillary’s campaign. As such I find myself leaning more Independent going forward since the 3rd party candidates like Gary Johnson – Libertarian and Jill Stein – Green Party have largely gone un-noticed!

Today Trump’s attacks have been directed to the liberal media he blames for trying to rig this election in favor of Hillary Clinton. Some will deny the existence of a biased media in the US. However Wall Street conglomerates control the media agenda the same way big Pharmaceuticals control and lobby Washington DC and Joe the plumber on Main Street continues to get short changed.

If you have never subscribed to the hit series House of Cards on Netflix I strongly recommend that you do. Because Claire and Frank Underwood are the true definition of what a true political power couple is all about in America. Claire defended her husband at all costs, amassing political power and influence at the cost of their marriage. Those who recall Bill Clinton’s infidelity and Hillary’s support of her husband in the years following his tumultuous marriage will be quick to relate the two story lines.

As a political novice and outsider Trump could have had a shot at the Presidency but his lack of filters and temperament when dealing with political opponents have left him exposed like a sitting duck and many within the Republican base were calling for his boycott in favor of his conservative running mate Gov. Mike Pence. While Trump surprised himself by winning the Republican primary he failed to prepare for a general election showdown with Hillary. However the game changer could be the October surprise of the FBI re-opening the email investigation.

For Trump to have survived this long without releasing any tax returns yet while Governor Mike Pence was requested to declare his tax return prior to joining the ticket reveals the true hypocrisy of Trump. However Hillary too has been left exposed by both the emails and the her foreign policy debacles. The latest challenge has also been the rising premiums of Obamacare and the Republicans hope to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

A letter signed by more by 30 Republican congressmen and women following Trump’s latest sexual scandal might be an attempt by those in the conservative establishment of the party to ditch Trump. But Trump too will not go away quietly–he has promised to take on Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House. As the Never Trump movement grows we have also seen new independent conservative Republicans like Evan McMullen of UTAH join the race. Just like George Wallace who only won in his own state of Alabama in the segregated south, McMullen seems to be polling neck and neck in Utah where as a Mormon he might win and cost Trump the badly needed electoral college vote he needs to enter the White house.

Poll data still places Hillary Clinton ahead with a few percentage points but with the latest FBI investigation looming, a new email dump from Julian Asange expected and the Brexit effect that saw the media get it all wrong in the UK, many say they will not count Trump out until the last ballot is counted. He bounced back from the second debate even when some thought he was finished, fighting for his political survival amidst falling poll numbers. The Republican base deserted him calling for his boycott, but the majority of those in his Republican base – rural voter and some evangelicals have stood by Trump and have shown a level of commitment and dedication to their candidate that seems unprecedented in the history of general election politics. For some its the Supreme Court and the need for change after eight years of the Obama presidency!

My final thought is that I expected John Kerry to win in 2004 following the Bush failures even as exit polls showed him in the lead but instead George Bush Jr, was able to win a second term, which many of us did not see coming. Strategists like Karl Rove called it again in 2012 for Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney following an impressive showing at the Presidential debate against the incumbent President Barack Obama. It was the capture of Osama Bin Laden that could have handed Obama his second term. Final vote tally would be Obama 62million vs Romney 59million.

As Trump rides the latest Hillary political scandal the timing could mean that the FBI came across a real smoking gun to reopen this case! As you watch the left center and now right leaning media be aware that America and its political landscape has now changed forever. With Roger Ailes – founder of Fox News and Breibert of Breibert News in Trump’s corner a Trump Television media empire might not be far fetched to counter the conservatives that have refused to embrace Trump or the liberal media that has openly endorsed Hillary. As we watch the next 10 days beware what you put or click online because just like the Snowden movie someone is definitely watching your every move and might use whatever you post against you some-day!

“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.”
― Tom Paine

May God Bless America!

— Ronnie Mayanja
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About the Author

Ugandan Diaspora News Team

Ugandan Diaspora News Online is an independent, non political news portal primarily aimed at serving Ugandans who work and reside outside Uganda. Our aim is to be a one stop shop for everything Ugandan and the celebration of our Ugandan heritage.

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